United States - Consumer Price Index (CPI)February’s consumer price index came in on the high side. The 0.4% increase in the headline CPI from January to February is above our forecast of a 0.3% gain. Relative to a year ago, the CPI rose from 3.1% to 3.2%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.4% as well. The increase was above ours and consensus expectations of a 0.3% rise, though the annual core CPI rate ticked down from 3.9% to 3.8%. Following consecutive monthly declines, energy prices rose 2.3% in February. The CPI for shelter decelerated modestly. After a 0.6% increase in January, shelter prices rose 0.4% in February. This marks two hotter-than-expected inflation reports to start 2024, strengthening the case for those urging patience as the Federal Reserve decides when to start easing policy.
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