The UPSC prelims difficulty can indeed fluctuate from year to year, but it doesn't necessarily follow a trend of becoming progressively easier or harder. This phenomenon is better understood through the concept of regression to the mean. For example, if we analyze UPSC prelims cutoffs from 2015 onwards, 2023 stands out as one of the most challenging years, while 2015 was among the easiest—observed simply by comparing cutoff scores.
If we were to plot these cutoffs on a graph, we'd likely see a bell curve, or normal distribution, where most cutoffs fall within a central range. This central zone, covering around 67% of the scores, represents the average difficulty level. Occasionally, we'll see outliers where cutoffs are extremely low (below 80) or exceptionally high (above 115, as in 2015). However, over time, the cutoffs tend to stabilize around a range, typically between 95 and 100.
Ultimately, while patterns exist, there’s no shortcut to mastering the UPSC prelims. Focusing on consistent preparation—reading, testing, revising, and repeating—is the best strategy to stay within that competitive range.
If we were to plot these cutoffs on a graph, we'd likely see a bell curve, or normal distribution, where most cutoffs fall within a central range. This central zone, covering around 67% of the scores, represents the average difficulty level. Occasionally, we'll see outliers where cutoffs are extremely low (below 80) or exceptionally high (above 115, as in 2015). However, over time, the cutoffs tend to stabilize around a range, typically between 95 and 100.
Ultimately, while patterns exist, there’s no shortcut to mastering the UPSC prelims. Focusing on consistent preparation—reading, testing, revising, and repeating—is the best strategy to stay within that competitive range.