@kuttrapali26

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Based on my budget analysis:
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☑️The budget is pro-consumption, IT & defensive sectors

❗️Capex disappointment is negative for Cyclicals, Infrastructure & PSUs

📋Neutral For Bank & NBFC


Now prfioritize liquidity-rich sectors and avoid value traps


#investing

•Middle class finally gets some relief
•VIX collapses by 10%
•Game-changing move ahead of the Delhi elections



#Budget 🔥

CONSUMER STOCKS



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BUDGET BIG BREAKING



No income tax Upto income of 12 lakh



#Budget

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BUDGET CHECK LIST PART-2
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☑️Fiscal Deficit & Borrowing

If deficit is Greater than 5.5% of GDP, expect bond yields to rise & Avoid rate-sensitive sectors:Real Estate & Auto

If deficit is Below 5% Positive For cyclicals stocks like Banks,Cement & infra

☑️Sector Rotation

•Shift from defensive (IT, pharma) to cyclical (infra, banks) if Budget Focuses on Growth & Capex and
Vice Versa

☑️Liquidity Flow Check

Keep an eye on sectors receiving the highest government allocations. Additionally, track institutional flows post-budget, as sectors with policy certainty tend to attract institutional investments.

☑️Capex Cuts

Trim exposure to infra & PSUs Stocks if Govt allocations disappoint. (below 10%)

☑️FreeBees/Populist Spending & Excessive subsidies Negative for Banks,NBFC & Power Companies

☑️Increase in capital gains tax

Reduce equity exposure Negative For Equity market


📋Conclusion:By aligning budget triggers with sector fundamentals, you can prioritize liquidity-rich sectors and avoid value traps



#Happyinvesting

INVESTING THESIS WITH EXAMPLE


Low Margins & Low Roe can be a strong reason for purchasing a security if there are Estimates for believing that they will improve. Small improvements in low profit margins & Roe can result in dramatic increases in earnings.


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🌁Pharma Sector:Expecting ROE & Margin improvement
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#Investing

☑️Budget Simplified Sector Wise: Part 1
☑️Budget Check List: Part 2

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📊1.INFRA
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Triggers:
•Government Capex Plans & Growth Targets

Action:
📋Bullish: If capex allocation TGT Is above 10% YoY,Focus on Infra,Cement, Steel,railways & defense.

📋Bearish: If capex growth is muted/delayed & Capex allocation TGT Below 10% YoY (Negative for underperforming PSUs & EPC companies)

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📊2.Renewable Energy Capex:
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Triggers:
•📋Bullish: If solar/Wind/hydrogen allocations jump & allocations align with growth targets

•📋Bearish:if fiscal deficit constraints lead to cuts On renewable Expenses

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📊3.Consumer Sectors
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Triggers:
•Tax relief for the middle class (99% chance there won’t be any) But could boost demand for autos, retail, and consumer durables if given

•Rural Schemes: Increased MSPs or MGNREGA funds, Focus on FMCG & Tractors Companies

•Action:
📋Bullish:if rural/urban demand triggers are announced

📋Bearish: If Govt Focuses entirely On
Populist/Freebie spending announcements

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📊4.Banking & Financials Triggers
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Triggers:
•Credit Growth Support:Expansion of credit guarantees for MSMEs Positive For psu & Housing Stocks

•Recapitalization of PSU Banks:If announced, PSU Banks may rally.

Action:
📋Bullish in banks with strong NIMs (Net Interest Margins) if credit growth accelerates

📋Bearish :If the chances of NPAs rise due to populist farm loans or other announced measures

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📊5.Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
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Triggers:
•Higher Health Infrastructure Spend: Allocations to Ayushman Bharat Bullish in hospital chains & diagnostics

•R&D Tax Breaks: Boost for pharma innovators

•Action
📋Bullish: if budget prioritizes healthcare

📋Bearish:if generic drug price controls are tightened

Part-2…

Morning Setup:View Changed/Closed


•Vix Turning Volatile (Budget)
•OI Data:Volatile Due to Rollover
•Global Still positive



#Indexanalytics

Let’s decode the budget and identify sectors for long-term picks based on announcements and liquidity flow.


Launching Part 1 in 30 minutes! Stay tuned



#BudgetAnalysis

NIFTY Morning Setup

•Vix (2% Down)
•Global Market in Green
•OI build Up (Check Chart)

📊Caution:Monthly Expiry

👉🏻Even with positive data, I wouldn’t recommend trading at 18 VIX just before the budget, as market data tends to turn volatile after 1 PM.


#IndexAnalytics

If you’re not aggressive, you are not going to make money and if you’re not defensive you are also not going to keep money


-Ray Dalio


#Goodmorning🌱

👨🏻‍💼Peter Lynch’s Investing Checklist – How many of these points do you follow before investing in a company?


If you’re not using them, start today! It’s time to level up your investing game.



#Investing

👨‍💼Warren Buffett’s cash on hand stands at $325 billion, the highest ever



I hope 🤞🏻he is proven wrong this time, but if he is right, he might be anticipating a situation similar to the Dot com bubble (now the AI bubble)



#Investing